The Kessler syndrome is the catastrophic distruction of
satellites through a chain reaction of collisions among satellites circling the
globe in the same orbit. When one satellite collides with another, it shatters
into hundreds of pieces, which in turn collide with other satellites, until, as
the theory goes all satellites are destroyed. There are many events which could
trigger the Kessler Syndrome.
Are we at risk of losing all communication satellites? To
many, the claim that we are at risk, is like Chicken Little screaming, “The sky
is falling, the sky is falling.” Certainly, our dependence on satellites and
the potential of losing our electronics dependent way of life should not be
brushed aside as easily as a panicked chicken in a fairy tale. Our reliance on
satellites touches our lives in every aspect, from a vacation trip in a car, airline,
or cruise ship, to our daily conversations on the telephone and the hot cup of
coffee we enjoyed this morning. Our emails to a friend and our tweets about the
big game coming up this weekend would not be possible without our communication
satellites. On a more serious note, our military relies on satellites for
everything from guiding aircraft, ships and drones, missiles and rockets, to
communication in battle.
What would the world be like, if our satellites were rendered
inoperable? Our electrical grid would go down, our GPS unites in our auto,
buses, trains, airplanes and ships would be worthless, and our telephone
service would be seriously, if not completely disrupted. For all practical
purposes, communication in the United States and around the world would be nonexistent.
Without satellites, we would have to fall back on systems of communication that
we used prior to the first Telstar satellite put in orbit July 10, 1962.
So, what is the threat? We take our age of information for
granted. What could go wrong?
In 2010 China launched a satellite that rendezvoused with
another of their own satellites. It could just as well come in contact with one
of ours and put it out of commission. What’s the first thing an enemy would do
in an attack on out country? Wipe out our communications. Everyday we are
bombarded with accounts of China hacking into our military, defense, large
banks and our industrial giants. This is fact. Friday, 2/15/13, an asteroid
dubbed 2012 DA14, half the size of a football field, will pass between the
earth and the moon, closer to the earth than many of our communication
satellites. There is the potential for it to strike one of those satellites,
triggering The Kessler Syndrome. If that seems like a remote possibility, consider
this. On Friday the 13th, April 2029, an even larger asteroid will pass between
the earth and the moon and we can’t do a thing to protect our satellites other
than watch and hope. If Asteroids are a remote concern, the sun poses a
significant risk of wiping out our communications. Solar flares will someday
wipe out some of our satellites and possibly a portion of our electrical grid;
this is a certainty, according to some scientists, but not a threat of
triggering the Kessler Syndrome.
Any of the above scenarios could cause widespread
disruptions in our way of life, but the one most likely, The Kessler Syndrome, which
was originally proposed to NASA by Scientist, Donald Kessler, in the 1978 has
already threatened our satellite system. On February 10th, 2009, a decommissioned
Russian satellite, Cosmos 2251, collided with a U.S. communication satellite,
Iridium 33, the two shattering into approximately 2100 pieces. Because there is
no international control over the orbit of satellites launched from countries
around the world, the Kessler Syndrome will quite possibly happen in our
lifetime. When I penned the spy novel, The Kessler Syndrome, it was with the
hope that the things fictionalized in the story, would never come to pass. But
with all the things that can happen, some day, when we least expect it, the
lights, our phone service, all of our communication may vanish. Maybe I should
have printed the book on paper, instead of electronically. Just a thought.
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